The evening started with the semi-monthly Happy Hour sponsored by the Downtown Residents Association called Zocolocos. Last night’s event was held at Toscana Ristorante, a new Italian restaurant that opened on Houston Street where Le Midi used to be. Realizing I was going to be late if I walked, I hopped a trolley down Houston and arrived 5 minutes later at the restaurant, where the bar was already full of downtowners like me. As soon as I walked in DRA President Joan Korte was welcoming me and pointing me to the appetizers and bar to get started. Diet Coke in hand and a plate of calamari and I was good to go. Seeing several other folks I know downtown, the place felt like home and a neighborhood gathering.

My good friends Richard and Snow from 1221 Broadway were there already, Snow driving from the far reaches of the city where he works and Richard biking down Broadway on his new Valentine’s Day present. Richard works at SAC as an instructor and decided it might be easier to bike to work instead of driving every day. Talking with him about the experience his first observation was how many other people he found that biked around the downtown and center city area. After all, downtown streets are bike-friendly and intermix with vehicles on the streets.

Seeing other friends such as George and Leticia who live in the Vidorra just across the freeway by St. Paul’s Square further solidified that downtown is developing its own sense of neighborhood and character. George introduced me to some of his friends who are restoring a house in Lavaca, one of the center city neighborhoods around the urban core. You see, those of us who live downtown have adopted the center cities in this quest to realize the Decade of Downtown, as Mayor Castro likes to call it. After all, neighborhoods like King William, Lavaca, Dignowity Hill, Tobin Hills, and Five Points were really just the first suburbs of the city many years ago.

Shortly, Joel, another friend of Richard and Snow’s, showed up. Joel’s a Cadillac Lofts resident and works at the Central Library. Now, in case you haven’t done the commute distance calculation, Joel’s got all of us beat. He’s a couple blocks away from the office over by Madison Square Park. After staying and chatting for a bit, the four of us decided to venture out on Houston Street to find something to eat. Right off the suggestion was to try the new Thai restaurant, Thai Lao Orchid, located on Broadway in the Atlee B. Ayres Building on Broadway right at Houston Street.

Not sure where it was, the four of us ventured down the block, and found it nestled in the middle of that block with an inviting store front appearance. The restaurant is situated in an old storefront and doesn’t seat many. It doesn’t have the fancy polished look of a Riverwalk restaurant. But the character of the place reminded me of many of the ethnic restaurants I enjoyed in DC in Adams Morgan and Dupont Circle. The setting was cozy, the food was great, the service was very personal.

After an assortment of good Thai food, the four of us headed home. However, instead of having a 15 – 20 minute drive in freeway traffic ahead of us, each took a different mode of transportation home. Snow picked his car up at the lot on Houston and drove about 5 minutes tops back to 1221. Richard hopped on Broadway and headed home also. Joel walked the 5 or 6 blocks back to Cadillac Lofts. Myself? I decided to forego the trolley and pick up a B-Cycle at the station at Houston and Alamo. Tucked in between a diesel Ford truck and a Jeep I rode down Houston, docked the bike at Milam Park, and walked across the street to the building.

Yep, I’d say downtown living is starting to change and it’s only going to get better as more people start to discover the ease of living downtown.

It turns out my questions were not unfounded. Checking in with Nancy Hunt, Executive Director of the Paseo Del Rio Association and the folks that manage the Riverwalk, I found out the King and Queen of the Riverwalk were the Mud King and Queen, at one time. According to Hunt “It started as Mud King and Queen decades ago when the river was drained, as a means to get people to the Riverwalk.  The candidates actually got in the River in the mud and did silly, bodacious stunts to raise money.” Since then, the royalty now represents the Riverwalk year round, including riding in the Texas Cavaliers’ River Parade, the King William Parade, and the Fiesta Flambeau Parade.

Also, since the city changed it’s schedule to drain the river, it really only gets muddy about once every two years. So Mud King and Queen just didn’t make sense when the vast majority of the time the river’s got water in it. Hence, the change and more fun and frivolity in store for the royalty. After all, this is San Antonio where we need almost no excuse to throw a party. Last year, Holley, Board member & Area Manager with InterContinental Hotel Group,  and Shanon Peterson, Historic Preservation Officer with the city of San Antonio, were the selected royalty. You can check out this year’s candidates and vote for them at the Paseo Del Rio website.

Talking to Steve on Monday night, he’s excited about the opportunity. Granted, he’s in the running with two other candidates but he’s built up a reputation as a huge advocate of San Antonio and the Riverwalk since Lüke first opened at the downtown Embassy Suites Hotel. If you’ve ever been to Lüke on a weeknight he’s often walking around the dining room, checking with everyone to make sure their experience is up to Lüke standards. Representing the Riverwalk just seems like a natural to him.

One funny thing Steve happened to mention to me Monday was “this is probably the only election where you can legally buy the vote.” Very true and I love it, especially here in Texas where we seem to have more fun and chaos in elections than anywhere else, except for maybe Florida. But then you have to ask where the proceeds from the campaigns go. Hunt answered, saying “The proceeds help fund the over 20 free events that Paseo produces each year on the River Walk for locals and tourists to enjoy.”

Considering the Riverwalk is the 14th most popular tourist destination in the United States, as ranked by Forbes in 2008, it makes sense for the Association to help promote and maintain the Riverwalk. After all, it’s really the face of San Antonio, along with the Alamo, to so many visitors to our city. It’s a fragile environment that has so much history surrounding it.

So I encourage you to take the time and vote for one of the candidates, if you feel inclined or just want to thank them for their contribution to downtown and the Riverwalk. The Association is having a final chance to meet the candidates and vote for them at the Rollin’ with the Royalty Pub Crawl, February 17th from 5:30 – 10 p.m.

In an article in the Austin Chronicle today, the dealings I had blogged about were discussed with the same optimism. “The state’s seeming desperation to avoid shifting the primaries again might add some strength to the plaintiffs’ side of the table, as they can extract more as the state keeps clock-watching to hit that Feb. 6 deadline,” said the article. The problem is that there are four plaintiffs that have to agree with the state for a deal to be valid, per U.S. District Judge Garcia’s order.

That’s where the problems start to creep in. There are four different plaintiffs involved in this cases: the Mexican American Legislative Caucus (MALC), MALDEF, LULAC, and the NAACP. In my prior research on the cases, I had looked at the proposed maps by each of the plaintiffs. The maps proposed by MALC (C211) and MALDEF (C213) bear similar characteristics but are different than those proposed by LULAC (C208) and the NAACP.

One of the key distinctions between the two sets of plaintiffs is that MALC and MALDEF’s CD-35 somewhat follow the same outline concept as the 82nd’s map, including the inclusion of the southeast corner of Travis County, pairing it with Bexar County. While that move forced Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) to seek office in CD-35 under the legislature’s maps, in the MALC or MALDEF maps Doggett would probably stay in CD-25 since both include a sizable portion of Travis County. MALC’s plan actually creates as close to a single district contained within Travis County as possible, something Austin residents have been wanting for quite some time. In the LULAC/NAACP no opportunity district was drawn in the Bexar/Travis County area. That is one of several issues that would need to be resolved between the plaintiffs and with the state, who’s map seems to resemble the MALC/MALDEF maps more closely.

Add the fact that is it expected that the DC District Court, currently ruling on Section 5 preclearance, could issue an opinion by the end of the week. If that is the case, some of the plaintiffs might be more inclined to wait for that opinion, expecting a ruling against the state on preclearance, with some possible guidance on what areas are in violation of Section 5. That would give the plaintiffs more negotiating power in the Section 2 trial in the Western District Court. However, it would severely jeopardize completing a settlement by the Feb. 6th deadline imposed by Judge Garcia.

As if that were not enough, Rep. Joe Barton has decided he needs to step into this process, most likely sensing that the Attorney General’s office was ready to give up the hill in the fight with the understanding these maps would be interim maps. In a tweet today from his own redistricting attorney, Trey Trainor, Barton seemed to indicate he would challenge any settlement, stating it must be precleared before being accepted.

“The state cannot advocate a map other than that which the policy-making body passed,” said Joe Nixon, Barton’s attorney, in an AP article. “That is why Congressman Barton chose to intervene to protect his interest. We’re not in a situation where we can say what can we agree or not agree on.” Barton seems to be concerned that any brokered solution will erode in the sizable Texas Republican House delegation, originally built by the mid-decade redistricting experience in 2003. Barton does not want to cede any ground, even if it could push the primaries back further into the year, jeopardizing Texas’ chances of having a deciding influence in the Republican presidential primary.

So, as you can see, my optimism may have been a little premature. But that optimism is more focused at providing Texas voters with the change to vote this year. So I’ll side with that optimism but do understand the reality of the matter outweighs the optimism.

Update – 1/30/2012 – 11:30 p.m. – Updated the post after discovering that CD-25 would probably be more acceptable for Doggett. Originally I had stated the MALC and MALDEF plans would force Doggett back into CD-35. That assumption is erroneous based on the view of the maps.

Part of that could be attributed to the Republican presidential nominee race that’s trekking around the country. While many had expected Mitt Romney to wrap this up by South Carolina, it appears both Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul plan to carry this race all the way to the convention. For both camps, conservatives in the case of Newt Gingrich and libertarians in the case of Ron Paul, having Texas in the hunt for delegates is critical to keeping campaign momentum throughout the rest of the race. With 155 delegates at stake in Texas, second only to California at 172, and a strong penchant for conservatives and libertarians, you can see why there is a push to keep Texas in the hunt.

However, if the redistricting case continues to drag on, the chances of meeting deadlines for an April 3rd primary would look pretty dim. The longest pole in the election tent is the requirement to get ballots to servicemembers serving overseas, promoted by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas). In the oral arguments on the interim maps before the Supreme Court, one justice asked the question about how far out the primary could be held. The answer was as late as June but no one really wanted to go out that far. Pushing the primaries into May creates a conflict with municipal elections and overlapping early voting periods.

Splitting the primaries can create expenses in the millions across Texas with no possible source of funds available to fund the split. As Deputy Attorney General David Mattax told U.S. District Judge Orlando Garcia, emergency funds would not be available for use in a split primary situation, prompting Garcia to push for a settlement between the parties. In Judge Garcia’s ruling he outlines the paths the parties could take that would possibly help meet the deadlines.

Michael Li further speculated on the possibility of a settlement, keying in on some of the comments made by state attorneys in the Friday status call with the District Court. Most of the state’s willingness to accept settlement hinges on the fact that the state sees these maps as temporary and not permanent. “When asked by Judge Rodriguez whether that meant the state was prepared to say that it wouldn’t appeal any new interim map to the Supreme Court, Mattax said that – as long as the changes were in areas of legitimate dispute – the state was prepared not to object, with the understanding that these were only interim maps,” said Li in his post.

The Associated Press has reported that earnest discussions have been ongoing between the plaintiffs and the state to come up with interim maps to present before the court. With four different plaintiffs, that could be a large task to accomplish but it’s not unheard of. However, if some Texas representatives in Congress have their way, the state may not be given much latitude to work with. Apparently Rep. Joe Barton is holding a position that the state cannot push any other plan than what was passed by the legislature, a position that would force the San Antonio panel to review the districts in conflict and come up with its own maps.

Most agree that any interim maps will benefit Democrats, with some variance on how much of a benefit could be realized. Most likely one, possibly two, new minor opportunity districts could be created as a result of the interim maps. Those districts are expected to have a Democratic bias. Some have suggested the state is seeing the handwriting on the wall that their chances of defending the actions by the legislature are slim in some cases, based on actions taken by the DC District Court and the Supreme Court.

Both courts either did not pass on summary judgment or remanded the case back to the District Court with instructions, clear indications the two respective courts saw merits to the plaintiffs’ issues. Most likely the state has had some serious discussions on the matter and have also been getting pressure from the state’s GOP leadership to push to keep an April 3rd primary date. With time getting shorter and shorter, no one wants a surprise decision to topple the house of cards that is gradually being built.

So the Romney-Gingrich-Paul fight might actually benefit Democrats in Texas in the long run. Regardless, this will be a classic case for political pundits, professors, and attorneys to look back on and see what could have been done better.

For one, the Romney attack blitz was unleashed in a state where big money is needed to mount a reasonable campaign. According to a Washington Post report on the ads, Romney and his allies had a 3-1 money advantage against Gingrich and it showed on the airwaves, with countless attacks on everything from the fees he earned as an “advisor” to Fannie and Freddie to NBC reports of his ethics violations, the later being removed after objections from NBC and Tom Brokaw. Gingrich has gone on the defensive about the ads and made some serious allegations about Romney in the process. From the Post article “’You cannot debate somebody who is dishonest. You just can’t,’ he said, referring to Romney.”

But is Gingrich providing any good responses to the ads other than defensive posturing? Not really. In fact, his behavior after South Carolina seems to be another reason he is falling in the polls. As George Will stated this morning on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” Gingrich’s worst enemy is time because he will continue to dig deeper with his sharp tongue and outlandish statements.

One statement raised eyebrows all around as Gingrich campaigned with Floridians on the space coast. During a campaign stop Gingrich proposed having a base on the moon by 2020, an idea that Charles Krauthammer called his “Dukakis in a tank” moment. It was evidently being played to one focused audience, those who’s jobs have depended on a robust and expansive space program. But at a time when the nation is struggling and the federal government is tightening its belt, that kind of program would probably not be received very well across the nation and it wasn’t.

It was a typical Gingrich “shoot from the hip” moment that has gotten him in trouble time and time again. Times like indirectly referring to Spanish as the “language of living in the ghetto,” a statement he later retracted in Spanish. What made Gingrich’s response to that statement, made in a speech in 2007, even more insulting was how he tried to dance around the statement in Florida where 22% of the population is Hispanic. “I wasn’t talking about any single language,” Gingrich has said in countless interviews. That defense is about as plausible as Clinton’s infamous “meaning of the word is is” response during the height of the Lewinsky investigation.

Most everyone who has any memory of Gingrich during his career has recognized this pandering, policy shifting, or evasion of facts. The problem is that this is not sitting well with an electorate that is looking for someone to take on Obama in November. They, and several Republican leaders and conservative pundits, see his erratic behavior as a negative during the campaign and during a potential presidency.

So if the Florida primary had been held on Sunday, Gingrich probably would have won it. But more than a week will go by before the final results are in, a week that allows Gingrich to be his worst enemy.

The latest poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports in South Carolina show Romney with a clear lead in the race, drawing 35%. Gingrich follows with 21%, Santorum and Paul with 16%, with Rick Perry trailing the pack at 5%. Huntsman had not announced his departure from the race when the poll was taken and drew 5%. It’s widely expected the majority of those votes would shift to Romney. So, if you follow Gingrich’s claim it would be almost a statistical dead heat between Romney and Gingrich. Ron Paul, the anomaly in the race, could pick up some of the conservative votes but highly unlikely, based on other polling data by PPP. When looking at 2nd choice candidates Paul polls only better than Huntsman with Santorum and Perry voters.

But when we start to look beyond South Carolina to see if there might be a path without Santorum and Perry, it doesn’t look much different than South Carolina. In fact, it may start to degrade for Gingrich. The latest Florida poll conducted by PPP shows Romney at 41%, Gingrich at 26%, Santorum at 11%, Paul at 10%, and Perry at 4%. Add the Santorum and Perry numbers to Gingrich and, once again, a statistical dead heat. 2nd choices for both Santorum and Perry favor Gingrich but not overwhelmingly.

Then there’s the perception factor. When asked if the election were between Romney and Gingrich, Romney wins 50-38. Looking at the demographics of Florida, it appears to more moderately conservative, less Tea Party, and slightly less evangelical Christian, an environment that is less favorable to Gingrich than in South Carolina. Couple that with the “winner” factor Romney will most likely pick up (remember, no nominee has ever won all three of the early states) and Romney’s lead in Florida will most likely improve.

While we don’t have the latest financial data, most likely Romney is still sitting pretty comfortable going into Florida, an expensive state for campaigns. Estimates are that a solid Florida campaign can easily run $4 million a week. While Gingrich has picked up some big donors for his Super PAC, most likely he’s not as well situated as Romney. Super PACs have been having a significant effect on voter perception of candidates this year and Florida will probably be no different.

But what if Gingrich wins South Carolina? That could change some of the dynamics of the race but only moderately. It won’t have the dramatic effect Gingrich will need to carry him in Florida. Remember, the demographics don’t favor Gingrich in the state so a South Carolina win will probably only give him a small bump in numbers. It could improve his fundraising efforts, helping him compete more closely with Romney. But then there’s the Paul factor, who seems more focused on Gingrich than Romney.

So, while Gingrich’s call for consolidation is worth considering, the path to victory is not as strong as he’s trying to make it. Besides, I personally don’t think it’ll happen.

Update – 1/17/2012 8:15 p.m. - Nate Silver further expands on Romney’s position in the polls and his chances of securing the nomination. Silver contends that there is about a 45% swing vote looking for the ideal candidate. While they may not have locked on Romney, at this point, they also haven’t solidified behind one of the conservatives or Paul. The field may be telling us they don’t have their perfect candidate in the field but Romney’s not a bad second choice. As Silver said “These voters were telling pollsters all along that Mr. Romney was an acceptable option. It may be for want of a better alternative, but they are now exercising that choice.”

Getting back to the point of why I haven’t published the interviews, there is a possibility that the Court might issue instructions for an interim map that is somewhere in between the two map positions. Michael Li, an attorney in Dallas, has provided his assumption of what the ruling might look like. Typically in a situation like this you use the existing maps as a baseline and adjust accordingly. The problem with the existing maps is that there are now four new districts as a result of population growth in Texas, primarily attributable to Hispanic growth. One of those new districts is the subject of the interviews, the 35th. One of the issues with that district is if it would end up containing a part of southeast Travis County, as the 82nd had drawn, or exclude it, as the San Antonio panel drew.

If a map is drawn based on instructions by the Court that includes that southeast section of Travis County most likely Rep. Lloyd Doggett will jump back into that race since his current district, the 25th, will be less winnable for him. That changes the dynamics of the race dramatically. It would pit two colleagues against each other, Doggett and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez. It would create a challenge of allegiance for many Bexar County Democrats who have been supportive of Doggett in the past. Finally, it might cause some of the current candidates to rethink their decision. After all, the current process allows for refiling once new maps are released.

As I’ve stated to the candidates, I didn’t want to release interviews with them unless I release them all at once. Most likely positions will not change but it’s in the interest of fairness with the candidates. If Doggett reenters the race in CD-35 I need to sit down with him. It’s just the right thing to do. Granted, the process could drag all the way out to the summer, as hinted by the justices in the oral arguments, and I don’t plan to hold out until then. But with a potentially eminent Supreme Court ruling that could dramatically alter this race, it just makes sense to wait a little bit for that ruling and take it from there.

So, my apologies to the candidates but it just makes sense to wait for the ruling.

Looking at the latest poll for South Carolina conducted by Insider Advantage Romney leads the pack with 23% of the vote compared to Gingrich at 21%. Santorum has 14%, Paul follows with 13%, Huntsman with 7%, and Perry trails the pack with 5%. 15% have no opinion on the race at this point so there’s some opportunity for Gingrich to take the lead and win SC next Saturday, a victory he desperately needs if he expects to carry his campaign to the end. However, I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in Insider Advantage polls. They aren’t the most reliable and come in pretty much at the bottom of Nate Silver’s poll ratings.

The challenge for conservatives

There’s still some play at hand in South Carolina before the primary election. Conservatives are having a hard time picking a leader in their segment of the party, fracturing between Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry (yea, even though he’s at the bottom he’s still drawing votes). This weekend evangelical leaders are planning a meeting at the ranch of Paul and Nancy Pressler in Brenham, TX in an effort “to unite and come to a consensus on which Republican presidential candidate to support or which not to support” according to the invitation.

Some of the leaders include Gingrich supporter Don Wildmon, former chairman of the American Family Association, and Santorum supporter Gary Bauer, a former presidential candidate. This is in an attempt to solidify behind a single candidate in an effort to stop the Romney train from getting cruising speed to the nomination. The problem is that while the group may coalesce behind a single candidate, until the other two drop out it’s just an endorsement with very little teeth. Evangelicals typically have a strong moral opinion and don’t listen to political reason when it comes to elections.

Florida and beyond

Looking at the latest Florida poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Romney leads that pack with 41% followed by Gingrich at 19%, Santorum at 15%, Paul at 9%, Huntsman at 5%, and Perry trailing the pack at 2%. According to the poll “Romney is viewed favorably by 76% of likely Florida Republican primary voters, followed by Santorum at 61%, Gingrich at 59%, Perry at 43%, Huntsman at 34% and Paul at 33%.” 41% of the voters can still be swayed so there’s some play in the poll but not if Romney wins South Carolina. That margin will only go up even if he pulls only a single digit victory margin in South Carolina.

Where this becomes very interesting is at the national level. A few other polls by Rasmussen provide some deeper insight into the general election against Obama. If the election were between Obama and Romney today, Obama would win 44-41. If Obama were running against a generic Republican, he would lose 47-43. That says Republican are probably nominating the wrong candidate to win in November. However, unless a new candidate emerges outside the field in time to compete in FL this race is all but locked up for Romney should he win FL. There is no chance even a strong competitor could ramp a campaign up, including finances, to be competitive with the existing Romney campaign and his Super PAC.

The Tea Party and Jim DeMint

Today the NY Times ran a very interesting in-depth article by Matt Bai about the South Carolina Tea Party and its challenges going into this primary election. Bai notes that the Tea Party is having the same issues evangelicals are in locking behind a single candidate. “The problem is that they’ve had a hard time settling on any obvious alternative to Romney, in a way that might transform the primary into a clear, binary choice,” said Bai in the article.

One unifying force that might pull the Tea Party together would be an endorsement by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) who is often credited as one of the founding fathers of the movement. However, DeMint has refused to stand behind one candidate at this point other than not endorsing Romney like he did four years. This is possibly to avoid giving the Romney campaign ammunition to use against an endorsed challenger since not only did DeMint endorse Romney but he also praised Romney’s health care plan in 2007. DeMint’s prior support has backed him into a corner he can’t get out of.

Bain Capital and “Vulture Capitalism”

The other issue facing Republicans has been the attacks on Romney’s involvement in Bain Capital which seems to be at odds with a typical pro-business stance by Republicans. Gingrich has been the biggest attacker of Romney through ads produced by his Super PAC but Perry has also joined the attack, labeling the business approach as “vulture capitalism.” Most are seeing these attacks for what they are; desperate attempts to gain an advantage against a campaign that is almost unstoppable.

All this infighting is surfacing issues that have developed within the Republican Party as it struggles to find its identity and still maintain a big tent approach for social conservatives, tea party supporters, and libertarians. As this primary season rolls on and candidates like Ron Paul remain in the race, these issues will most likely come to a head at the national convention in Tampa, most likely in the Platform Committee. In the meantime, Obama continues to rake in the money, heading toward a fundraising target of over $1 billion, a rumor flatly denied by the Obama campaign.

To start the discussion let’s take a look at the latest polls from South Carolina:

As you can see from the polls Romney still holds a lead in the state but all these polls were taken prior to the debates. More telling will be polls after both the debates and the NH primary. One thing to note is the numbers might change due to a probably drop-out by Hunstman after New Hampshire. Huntsman is polling in 4th in that state after spending so much time due to his skipping Iowa. Huntsman did perform well in both debates but probably not enough to bump him into the top three. If Huntsman does drop out, any support he had in SC will most likely migrate to Mitt Romney.

Demographics

Looking at South Carolina, aside from whites and African-Americans, it matches up almost identical to Iowa in terms of age, sex, income, and household size. South Carolina does have a higher unemployment rate (9.9%) than Iowa (5.7%) and a higher poverty rate so the economy will have more significance in voters’ minds. Regarding evangelicals, it’s about even with Iowa at 57% compared with 60%. South Carolina does lean more conservative than Iowa but only by about 5 points in the polls. Hispanics make up the same percentage of the population in both states. So, for all intents and purposes, the two states are very similar.

Those facts will weigh somewhat into the decisions of the voters in all but one respect – Ron Paul. As you can see from the polls Paul is not tracking as well in SC as he did in IA or currently in NH. Voters in SC align more as traditional or conservative Republicans compared with the other states. In SC only 14% identify as independent compared with 18% in IA and 34% in NH. That would explain Paul’s second place showing behind Romney in the Granite State. In a state like SC he is going to have a harder time attracting Republicans, just as he did in 2008.

The Conservative Club

One thing this campaign is highlighting is the struggle social conservatives and tea party voters are having trying to find a candidate that meets their expectations. Three candidates are vying for that distinction with voters, two (Santorum and Gingrich) sitting right behind Romney in the polls. What is most interesting is where Rick Perry ranks, sitting in single digits and towards the bottom of the pack. If Huntsman drops out there no indication his votes would go to Perry, leaving Perry at the bottom. So let’s look at the three candidates who make up the Conservative Club, starting with Perry.

Rick Perry

Perry’s poor showing is a telling indicator of how his campaign has been handled, considering he announced in South Carolina and traveled straight to the state after Iowa, skipping New Hampshire. Aside from Iowa, he’s spent more time in that state than any other state so far in the campaign. He and his Super PAC have spent quite a bit of money in the state, second only to Iowa. With a strong evangelical and conservative base you would expect him to be in the mid-tier at least. However, Perry has never polled well in SC since late October, dropping to single digits from that point forward. With those facts, you have to wonder why Perry changed his mind Tuesday night and decided to head to SC instead of reassessing in Texas.

Perry was expected to head to SC after IA since he still had campaign funds available, probably sitting just behind Romney. There have been several estimates on what remained in Perry’s war chest but I would estimate it at around $5-6 million, sufficient enough to wage a full campaign in SC with relatively inexpensive media markets and a small enough size to campaign by bus.

However, at the end of the night Tuesday night Perry made the surprise announcement that he was heading to TX to reassess. The next morning that story changed and SC was back on the tour. Most likely the SC team called Perry and told him the state was winnable. I have to ask, would you trust a team who was facing unemployment should Perry pull out? I would have taken their advice, traveled to Austin, and discussed it with both the SC team and close advisors at home.

Rick Santorum

Santorum would be expected to be the darling of South Carolina, courting its evangelical voters. Recently I talked to a good friend in the state who’s pretty connected with its Republican politics. He told me that Santorum does have a strong following in evangelicals, to the point several packed up and campaigned for Santorum in IA. However, Santorum’s kick only happened in IA just a few weeks ago and probably hasn’t trickled to SC yet. Without a candidate campaigning in the state it’s sometimes hard to get excited enough to commit.

Looking at the PPP poll Santorum is running a close third behind Romney and Gingrich with evangelicals but clearly 2/3 of his supporters are evangelical. Looking at how committed his base is, more than half have said they could change their mind, with only Perry and Roemer as the other candidates in that predicament. He has closer tea party alignment than any of the other candidates.

It’s pretty evident that Santorum is definitely a third place candidate in the state and will need strong showings in the debates and some substantial media buys to climb higher. With his neck and neck finish with Romney in IA, he was awarded center stage at the two NH debates, giving him more opportunity to voice his positions. However, that time may be short lived based on his performance. Santorum took some pretty significant heat from Ron Paul during the ABC debate and faired only a little better during the NBC debate. There’s a good chance he’s seen his surge and, with the scrutiny and attacks stepped up, he’ll suffer the fate of all others in that position.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich left IA in 4th place to Romney, Santorum and Paul. Gingrich was in decline in IA after enduring the surge right before Christmas. Once he rose in the polls the Super PACs of Romney, Paul, and Perry came after him with a constant barrage of negative ads, most likely turning IA conservative voters from him and towards Santorum. But this is SC where he seems to be polling much better. Currently he is sitting just above Perry in NH but those numbers were before the debates.

His showing in the debates and a change in campaign tactics could improve his position in the state and definitely help him in SC. SC provides a more fertile ground for Gingrich’s status to grow, having fewer independents than NH. Gingrich can be a strong debater but can also be perceived in a negative term, likened by one CNN commentator as a “mean old peepaw” (my personal favorite). Currently Gingrich is tracking about a point behind Santorum before the debates, which could change in the next couple of days. He most likely won’t get a bump from the NH primary but his debate performance could impress SC voters.

Gingrich’s Super PAC is starting to come online now and will be launching a series of negative ads in SC, aimed primarily at Romney. Primed with a $5 million donation from casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, the Super PAC will be aiming to take the wind out of Romney’s sail in the southern state. If Gingrich can overtake Romney in SC it would give him enough credibility moving into FL to continue his campaign.

Mitt Romney

Romney is quickly becoming the candidate to beat in the race. His tie finish with Santorum didn’t seal the deal in IA but the next stop is NH where he’s all but sewn up the victory. SC is really the state he’ll focus on to seal the deal with voters going into FL. If Romney can mount a strong victory in SC he will prove to Republicans and independents he is the best person to beat Obama. Currently Romney is averaging 10 points ahead of Santorum in the polls taken before the debate. During the first of the two debates, Romney went mostly unscathed. However, that approach changed during the second debate where he became the primary target.

Romney’s biggest challenge in SC will be his business record, mostly at Bain Capital where the accusations are levied that the firm acquired companies for the assets only to cut jobs in the process. In a state with unemployment at 9.9% that might not sit well with voters. Romney has already received the endorsement of SC’s governor, Nikki Haley, a tea party candidate who has recently come under fire from the tea party for her support of Romney. However, in the PPP poll the majority said her endorsement didn’t matter that much.

One thing to watch as Romney moves through SC and FL will be how much he interacts with Haley and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). Both have been rumored to be under consideration as potential VP candidates with Romney, should he win the nomination. Haley, and Indian-American, and Rubio, a Hispanic, could help provide a minority boost for his campaign. Both also appeal to the tea party supporters, essential for Romney to build a strong voter base against Obama. However, Haley said in August she was not considering a possibility as a VP candidate and her approval rating in SC is low at 35%.

Ron Paul

South Carolina may be the state to start putting the brakes on the Ron Paul Express. Up until this point, Paul has been enjoying enthusiastic crowds in IA and NH. Both states have a larger number of independent and liberal voters that seem to be flocking to Paul’s libertarian policies. But when it comes to SC, the voter base is more conservative with fewer independent voters. Even though SC has an open primary process, it’s doubtful many Democrats will cross over to cast a disruptor vote in the primary.

Paul will finish a strong second in NH but still double digits behind Romney. One thing that benefits Paul is that his message has been consistent since he launched his campaign. Even though he has taken attacks from the other candidates, they are the same attacks. So voters are informed of his positions of reduced military conflicts, dismantling the Federal Reserve, and dramatic cuts in government spending.

On the other hand, Paul has a strong Super PAC and a dedicated base that has formed since he first announced, with supporters in every state anticipating his arrival, almost at a cult level state. Paul is one of those candidates you either really like or really hate. He logs the highest numbers of committed favorable/unfavorable voters. From that perspective, his numbers of 10% should hold steady through the SC primary. Paul is not expected to leap ahead in this race and will most likely be the barrier to Perry continuing.

South Carolina Strategy

So what can we expect from the candidates in the coming weeks before the SC primary? For starters, SC will probably see a blitz of negative ads of all shapes and sizes, mostly coming from Paul, Romney, Perry and now Gingrich. Santorum may launch a few but he’ll probably focus more on promoting himself since SC is his do or die state. Negative ads have proven effective so far and with two weeks between NH and SC there is time for negative ads to impact voters in the state.

Both Santorum and Perry have already moved into the state to campaign to try to build a base ahead of the rest of the pack who’ll descend on the state Wednesday. Santorum should have received enough cash after his IA tie to launch a decent campaign in the state. Perry has had a strong team in the state for months and is financed to keep a strong presence going. Both realize SC is their “do or die” state and will be fighting for second place. Third place or worse will force both to reassess their campaign and possibly one, if not both, dropping out after SC. FL, a state where you can easily spend $4 million a week in media,  will be too daunting for a campaign that is running low on funds.

Romney will work to maintain in SC in an attempt to shore up his nomination. Past history has shown that winning two of the three early states is almost enough to secure the nomination. Winning in SC will give him the strong push needed for FL. Romney’s biggest challenge will be from Gingrich who’ll be gunning for the top spot. If Gingrich can win the top spot he’ll could become that candidate conservatives and tea party supporters have been looking for to take on Romney. If Gingrich wins in SC, you can expect this contest to drag out into March or April.

Finally comes Ron Paul. Paul doesn’t really have a path to victory any more. He can’t secure Romney supporters and the conservatives and tea party folks can’t tolerate some of his libertarian ideas. His voter base is pretty much locked from this point forward. He also has enough finances to sustain a campaign through to the convention. That’s really where Paul’s showdown will be. By gathering enough delegates along the way, Paul will be able to have influence at the convention for his issues.

Going Rogue

Even if Romney wins the nomination he must deal with Paul for one reason – to keep Paul from going rogue and launching a third party bid for the presidency. Doing so will fragment the Republican vote enough to probably assure a victory in November. Right now the Republican Party has more cracks in the base than the Democratic Party, Paul’s faction being one of them. By keeping the fight to the convention, Paul can play his hand to influence the platform and to gain a prime speaking position at the convention, two coveted hands to be able to play.

Romney’s folks know this and will be warily watching Paul throughout the rest of the campaign season. That will most likely be the political theater to watch after FL. Even if Romney’s folks feel they have Paul locked in, one incident down the road could cause a change in strategy by the Paul campaign.

So now you see why South Carolina is the state to watch.

The Good

Let’s start with the Good of the Iowa caucuses. First of all, the field appears to be narrowing with the bottom two candidates most likely calling it quits. Iowa voters did what many of us wanted to do and that was to publicly tell both Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann they are not presidential candidate quality. Bachmann took the message to heart and suspended her campaign. Perry is coming back to Texas but appears to be continuing his campaign, at least through South Carolina. But it definitely created more of a barrier for Perry to continue. Iowa also culled Tim Pawlenty (kind of wish he would have stayed in) and Herman Cain, although his problems were bigger than Iowa.

Iowa also elevated Rick Santorum to a top tier candidate for social conservatives. Granted, he may have lucked out on timing by not having to endure a couple of weeks of scrutiny into his record. But Iowa votes held true to their values and stood behind Santorum on caucus night. The challenge for Santorum is that this late boost doesn’t give him the time to ramp up for New Hampshire or South Carolina. Santorum has get the cash flowing in and build a national campaign staff while trying to campaign hard in the Granite State. Personally I think he’s going to be challenged to accomplish those tasks.

The Bad

One of the things we’ve all been waiting to see happen was how the Super PACs, those new beasts created by the Citizens United decision, would play in the campaigns. Three of the candidates, Romney, Paul, and Perry, had companion Super PACs that were well funded and helping provide negative campaign ads against the opponents. While Super PACs can provide positive ads in support of their candidate, they run more risks of crossing FEC lines. It’s actually much easier for a Super PAC to go negative, attacking the opponent without having to breach the line of collusion with the candidate.

Newt Gingrich was definitely the target of the majority of Super PAC attacks in Iowa, so much to the point that they probably contributed to his fourth place showing in the caucuses. Gingrich has his own Super PAC but apparently took a pledge to not go negative during the Iowa campaign. Going into New Hampshire I’m sure Gingrich is going to reassess that strategy and “tell the truth” in an interesting way. Santorum may be the loser in this race of the Super PACs. He’s the only candidate that doesn’t have one in his favor. He needs to funnel funds to his campaign anyway.

The Ugly

Probably the ugliest part of the Iowa caucuses was the fractured state of the Republican Party in terms of nominating a candidate. Granted, if you’re a Democrat you’re loving every bit of this political theater as it further weakens the candidates and their positions. But if you’re a Republican it demonstrates how fractured the party is. If you look inside the Republican Party there are four distinct factions that are trying to “get along” – traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, libertarians, and social conservatives. Some of theses groups overlap at points but no one group “owns” the Republican Party mantle.

Those dynamics played out during the Iowa campaign, with the Tea Party folks shopping candidates the most. Everyone watched the anti-Romney movement take shape in Iowa, starting with Bachmann, moving to Perry, then to Cain, then to Gingrich, and finally to Santorum. The libertarian faction found their candidate in Ron Paul and locked in behind him long before any others. Unlike the Tea Party folks, who may hold their nose and vote for Romney if needed, Paul supporters are unlikely to get behind anyone but Paul. Social conservatives seem to be just looking for someone who opposes abortion and supports traditional marriage. After that, they’re pretty forgiving.

New Hampshire and Beyond

What this now means is the field is still fractured leaving Iowa, if not more. Gingrich has turned the race personal with an avowed attack planned for Romney. Gingrich said he didn’t plan to run nasty ads. “But I do reserve the right to tell the truth. And if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on (Romney’s) record than it is on politics,” he said in the article. The problem is Gingrich still has some baggage of his own he needs to shore up. As pointed out in an extensive Politico article Gingrich’s worst enemy appears to be himself.

Romney is the clear leader going into New Hampshire but Jon Huntsman has been anxiously waiting for him and the fight. Hunstman has been polling at 13% (Romney at 47% and Paul at 17%). There’s not a lot of time for much shifting to occur so any ground must be gained fast and with some pretty decisive actions. You can only expect the campaign to get worse before it gets better. With Romney and Santorum both coming in with a virtual tie in Iowa, both will be working to score wins in NH or SC. Past history has shown that winning two of the three early states almost guarantees the nomination. Since IA was a toss-up that means FL will probably be the deciding state.

Iowa didn’t decide the winner of the Republican nomination and it culled one candidate going into NH and SC. It started the standard of Super PAC attacks that will only carry forward into future races. It also created a series of showdowns on the way to FL. Iowa did leave a mark, regardless of how people view it.

First, if you look at Iowa’s demographic make-up you’ll find it is far from reflective of our country. According to recent US Census data, Iowa is 91.3% white, 2.9% black, and 5% Hispanic. It’s unemployment currently sits at 5.7% compared with the nation at 8.0%. Voter turnout is higher than most other states in the nation with almost 53% voting for statewide offices in 2010 compared with Texas at 38%. Over 60% of Iowa caucus goers in 2008 identified as evangelical Christians. Based on that information you can see that the issues important to Iowans can be much different than those of the rest of the nation.

So, with these differences with the rest of the nation, why is there so much attention placed on Iowa? As some have noted, Iowa has an average track record at picking a winner. In fact, Bill Clinton finished in fourth place with 3% in 1992. That year “Uncommitted” came in second with 12% of the vote. Former Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) won the caucus, which was to be expected. McCain came in fourth in 2008 with Mike Huckabee winning the caucus.

With those factors being considered, why is so much attention placed on this contest? To answer that, you need to consider it from a different perspective. Iowa serves more as a good vetting of the candidates rather than picking a winner. It’s a part of the winnowing of the field as the nation moves to Super Tuesday when most of the delegates are at stake in the nomination process. To really have a good nomination process, you really don’t want a large field fracturing the delegate counts. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina serve as good vetting states for that process.

Tonight, most likely we’ll see Michelle Bachmann come in last and start considering termination of her campaign. We’ll also see if Newt Gingrich has the staying power to last through South Carolina. If he finishes behind Gov. Rick Perry it’s a good chance he’ll also consider hanging it up, primarily because of a shortage of funds to fuel an all out fight in South Carolina. We’ve already seen Tim Pawlenty drop out after the Iowa Straw Poll and Herman Cain drop out after the sexual abuse allegations kept mounting. Pawlenty’s drop could be attributed to Iowa. Cain’s was going to happen regardless of what state was up next.

After tonight, the field will become a little more defined but it’s still a toss-up. The top three are so close it’s impossible to tell who’ll win tonight. It really depends on who shows up at 7 p.m. to sit and listen to speeches and cast a ballot. It takes a great commitment to engage in the Iowa Caucus and only 10% of the state really does take the time.