Concerned Citizens

Last night Texas finished the first part of its primary process and answered the question of whether Gov. Rick Perry would be facing Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in a run-off. The biggest factor in that equation was how much effect Debra Medina would have on the race. Well, Texas Republicans (and a few Democrats) answered that question for us. With 51% of the vote Perry dodged a run-off and now matches up with former Houston Mayor Bill White in November. Personally I have to feel a little pride in that I predicted 53%. 2 points off is not bad in my book. So did we learn a little more about Texas politics after the votes were counted?

In some aspects I think we did. For one thing, Perry didn’t run away with this election like Bill White did on the Democratic side. But he was facing two influential factors – a sitting US Senator and a strong conservative. As I’ve said before, the Republican gubernatorial race was a race to the right. All three of the candidates spent the last three months trying to tell voters they were more conservative than the other. I could believe Perry’s claims, especially after all the Washington bashing he’s been doing. I really believed Medina after her comments about “packing heat” in the grocery store. But Hutchison was really having a hard time convincing voters of the fact.

That’s just one of the missteps that earned her the #3 slot in Rich Dunham’s top 10 worst campaigns in modern Texas political history. Today I attended the Texas Tribune’s TribLive breakfast with Matthew Dowd and Mike Bacelice hosted by Evan Smith. For a political junkie it couldn’t get any better. Listening to both Dowd and Bacelice break down the race while questioned by Smith you really got a deeper understanding of the campaigns and where they went or could have went. Of course Bacelice is going to provide a Perry spin, being one of his primary pollsters. However, Smith did a pretty good job of keeping him honest on some points.

Both Dowd and Bacelice said that from the start Hutchison seemed to have set the campaign up for failure. Even with a strong lead and a large war chest her actions seemed to demonstrate a lack of conviction to distance herself from Washington, something Texas Republican voters came to resent over the course of the campaign. Had she have resigned the Senate and “pulled a Bayh” as Dowd put it, she might have had a better chance of showing voters she was ready to work for Texas in Texas.

Instead she tried to bring a Washington experience message back to Texas where the reception was cool at best. As Dowd said, message was key to the campaign and Hutchison’s message was never really on point with Texas voters. That being said, Perry’s message seemed to play well with Texas Republicans. The question is if that will continue to play with independents as we move into the general election cycle. Personally I think Perry is going to have to come back to the middle to meet the independents to win in November. As I’ve pointed out before he only won with 39% in 2006 with a moderate and a liberal as his opponents. In 2010 he’s facing a strong moderate with no one on the left to pull any votes off.

Dowd did say that for White to have a chance in November he has to start campaigning hard now. White is really only known in the Houston area as far as accomplishments are concerned. If Perry’s campaign in on point, which they seem to demonstrate they are, they are going to start painting White with any bad points such as Sanctuary City, the pension debt, and any other things they can find. More importantly they are going to press White to see how aligned he is with the Obama policies. For White to win, according to Dowd, he is going to have to distance himself from Washington regardless of what the consequences with the Obama administration are.

What Dowd and Bacelice both said regarding the issues is that they are not defined yet. It’s unclear what issues really do matter to voters regardless of what the Republican leadership might think. In the end, regardless how much you think an issue might take a candidate up or down, if the voters don’t care about it you’re wasting time and money.

So while we had a fun ride for a while last night the real interesting part of this election is about to start. The primary really was just a warm-up act for the big show. Stay tuned. I know I’m going to have some fun with it.

Update 03/06/2009 11:15 – Here’s the video of the Texas Tribune Live event I referred to in the blog entry. I had to wait until the Texas Tribune put it up on Vimeo to post it.

TribLive feat. Matthew Dowd and Mike Baselice from texastribune on Vimeo.