Concerned Citizens

On Tuesday we come into the home stretch of what has been an interesting primary season in Texas. What typically is a sort of anointing of a chosen candidate at least turned into a horse race on the Republican side between Gov. Rick Perry, Sen. Kay Baily Hutchison, and Debra Medina. Hutchison made it competitive when she hinted at running as far back as mid 2009 that she was serious about running for governor. Starting with a strong war chest and leading in the polls, it seemed like hers to lose. Those turned out to be famous last words. Now with only two days until the primary election she appears to have done a good job of losing it.

Based on the latest poll from Rasmussen poll Perry holds a lead over Hutchison and Medina with 48%, just barely under the 50%+1 mark. Hutchison has 27% and Medina has 16%, down from 20% before her 9/11 statement meltdown. With a margin of error of 4.5% it appears Perry might be able to close out the primary without having to face Hutchison in a run-off election, something he desperately hopes for to help conserve cash for the general election against the Democratic challenger. Unless something radical happens at the polls on Tuesday I personally feel Perry will win the race with 53%.

Voter turnout statewide has been strong on both sides, demonstrating the increased interest in this race this year. Here in Bexar County early voting totaled 51,529, an 87% increase over 2006. Interestingly, Bexar County seemed to lead Dallas County in early voting which could signal even more problems for Hutchison since that is a strong area for her. Hutchison’s chances for a run-off really depend on Dallas County turning out on election day to help her finish strong. Some might attribute the weak Dallas County numbers to a change in voter demographics, as was evidenced in the presidential election but even the Democratic numbers are weaker than Bexar County.

On the Democratic side former Houston Mayor Bill White will cruise to a victory over businessman Farouk Shami. While Shami really didn’t seem to have the strength to beat White several campaign missteps in the final weeks have led to further decline in his numbers. The biggest meltdown was in a late night campaign disagreement on message. Apparently Shami had started relying on his personal PR folks and disregarded advice from the campaign staff he hired. As such, Shami started making controversial statements accusing White of racism and his own questionable statements of 9/11 and JFK’s assassination. When the campaign staff tried to calm the storm, Shami came back saying his personal folks spoke for him. The next day, Shami’s campaign leadership resigned en masse, leaving him with political amateurs.

So, it looks like White will match up against Perry in the general election in November. With both having different styles of campaigning it should prove to be an interesting race. I do want to emphasize that if you are so inclined, please attend your precinct convention held after the polls close with Democrats convening at 7:15 p.m. and Republicans convening at 7:30 p.m. Your precinct convention will convene at your election day polling place and can be found at the Bexar County Elections website. By doing so, you’ll help strengthen your party’s base and increase the voice of the people in the process.