Concerned Citizens

Sunday I examined the Texas governor’s primaries on both the Republican and Democratic side. Based on the latest polls and some very bizarre episodes about 9/11 it is becoming pretty apparent we will have a Rick Perry/Bill White showdown for the general election in November. While Perry is not completely out of the woods just yet and could face a run-off against Kay Bailey Hutchison I really don’t see that happening based on Debra Medina’s meltdown on the Glenn Beck show this past week. But what will happen after the primaries? Who will prevail in November?

First of all let’s look at the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll conducted February 1-7. In that poll one of the result sets involved a Perry/White face off. In that face off Perry has 44% to White’s 35%, with about 21% polling as either “don’t know” or “someone else.” That’s a pretty significant block in the open category which could swing either way as the next phase of campaigning begins. Remember, either candidate could pull a meltdown much like Medina and Shami did and all bets are off. But for the sake of this blog post we’ll leave that scenario to history.

Regarding accuracy those poll numbers track closely with a Texas newspaper poll conducted about the same time as the other poll, February 2-10. In that poll Perry has 43% to White’s 37% when hypothetically faced off against each other. Based on that Perry beats White in the general election if the election were held today. But I think there’s more to the race that needs to be explored with some ideas about what either candidate should do to secure the seat in November. As is evident in the other poll the undecided votes could sway the race either way meaning independents really hold the key to this election.

So what about those undecided voters and what about the independent voters? In my opinion those voters are the ones that will decide this race in November and the block the candidates really need to focus on coming out of the primaries. Neither candidate can just take their primary base and win this election. It’s going to take that base and a good sum of the independent voters to pull off a victory. Unlike 2006 when Perry won with just 39% of the vote in a field that included a Democrat and two independents, this race is most likely going to come down to just two candidates so a victory is 50%+1 of the vote.

Right now if I were to look at the candidates and their alignment with independents I would give it to Bill White. He has proven to be more of a moderate candidate and has a track record in Houston of practicing that moderate position, working with all political types during his tenure on the Houston city council. Perry, on the other hand, has been taking a hard conservative stance in his primary campaign and will have to come back to the middle to appeal to independents who typically stand in the middle on social issues.

So is that last statement really true? Well, when you look at some of the other questions on both the UT/Tribune poll and Texas newspaper poll you find more information on what people are really thinking. If you look at the UT/Tribune poll in the Perry/White matchup most of the “someone else/don’t know” voters ended up in the ideology middle or one step to the right, basically moderates. White picked up 77% of those who registered one step left of center but Perry only picked up 50% of those one step right of center which seems to indicate moderates prefer White over Perry at this point.

Looking  at Perry’s approval numbers he’s right at where he was in 2006 with 46% approving (47% in 2006) and 38% disapproving (the same in 2006). Regarding White, most voters don’t know enough about him to make a decision on favorable opinion (65%) which means White has plenty of opportunity to sway voters with an effective message. One telling number in the poll is whether Texans support term limits for governor. 75% support term limits; a number that hasn’t hurt Perry up to this point with Hutchison but could factor in with White who left the Houston mayoral position due to term limits. Voters might remember than when comparing the two candidates.

When looking at the issues voters are pretty much all over the map in terms of how they stand. Consider the question about creating more jobs. 40% of Texans support offering businesses incentives to bring jobs compared to 25% who favor cutting business taxes. White would stand to gain from that position while Perry, who has advocated cutting business taxes and recently said he would cut funding to the Texas Enterprise Fund designed for business incentives, could suffer from his moves.

Regarding social issues the same UT/Texas Tribune poll dug into some other issues including gay marriage found that 63% of Texans support either gay marriage or unions, a position Perry is strongly against. Regarding immigration a recent Houston Chronicle/San Antonio Express-News poll showed that 52% supported either giving work visas or providing a path to citizenship over deportation, another Perry wedge issue. Based on this information it’s pretty obvious either Perry is going to have to change position to win the middle or bet the middle will side with him down the home stretch.

Finally, let’s look at one other scenario of Perry coming back to the middle to win the election. Should he do so he will first have to explain his change of heart to a base of voters that is extremely conservative. If that happened those voters could either accept the move as a means to an end or stay away in anger. A third option would be the conservatives would mount an independent candidate from either the Tea Party or among the conservative ranks. This has been happening in several elections across the country with NY-23 coming to mind.

Should this happen Perry will have a situation in 2010 that is quite different from 2006 when he won with 39%. In 2006 the independents were either liberal (Kinky Friedman) or in the middle (Carole Keeton Strayhorn). In that case Chris Bell, the Democrat, suffered from the independents drawing voters from his base. In 2010, if the conservatives launch an independent candidate the opposite would occur and Perry’s base would suffer.

So as you can see, when the votes are finally tallied on March 2nd we are going to have an entirely new governor’s race in front of us. It’s destined to be a race that campaign strategists will enjoy based on the dynamics of the voter base. There are so many other issues to consider such as Obama’s influence and the economy. But I’ll look at those as we enter the general race.