Less than a year away and 2010 election is already heating up
Today I sat and watched the Sunday line-up of talking heads after the House passage of the health care bill. The conversations were interesting and I’m still digesting some of what happened last night from a variety of news sources. It looked like there was so much horse trading to get the bill passed I’m really not sure what we ended up with. Something had to happen though. Regardless of what Gov. Perry believes regarding Texas health care, it’s not a model for the nation when the state has the largest number of people without health care. However, this post is not about the health care issue. I may wade in after digesting the information but there’s another issue surfacing in America that probably needs addressing today.
Tuesday’s elections yielded what I would call mixed signals about what may happen in 2010. In two states Republicans defeated Democrats for the governor’s seat. In NY-23 the stealth candidate of the Tea Baggers lost to the Democrat, turning the district blue for the first time in a hundred years. Yet even in that election conservatives claimed victory. I love political spin where you can make pig slop sound like a gourmet feast. What was disturbing were the claims that the Republican candidate was not the candidate of choice for the election. Claiming that a board of party officials picked someone not in tune with Republican ideas, outsiders of the district mounted their own challenge and fielded a conservative candidate that apparently mirrors the “values” of the Republican Party.
Wait, what about the voters of the district? Maybe some of those like Palin, Armey, Beck and Limbaugh ought to live among the natives of the district before claiming to know the minds of the voters of the district. After all, shouldn’t the candidate reflect the values of the district more than some outside ideology? Such appears to be the approach to be expected as we move into 2010. In the end, the voters of NY-23 spoke clearly and rejected a conservative for a Democrat. Maybe the so called conservative sages should have asked the Republican voters of the district before ramming a candidate down their throats.
Today I found another indication of stealth in, of all places, TX-23 currently held by Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX). After getting an innocuous e-mail from a political site here in San Antonio about my opinion of Rodriguez I decided to avoid over analyzing something I hadn’t paid much attention to. In 2008 Rodriguez defeated former Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson by 14 points (56% to 42%) in a race that seemed to call into question Rodriguez’s ability to serve his district adequately. Larson is expected to challenge Rodriguez again in 2010 but must first get through a Republican primary that may start crowding up.
After the follow-up I got another message from the site owners promoting Vic Luebker as a possible candidate with the final statement attempting to hook me in. “If you get in on this race now it will be big for your website and you will be in before the National Media gets a hold of it,” said the message. Okay, note to the site owners. I’m not in this to make it big unlike their apparent motives. I’m in it to provide my perspective on politics and San Antonio in general. I can detect a shill like that a mile away and I’m afraid that so-called political site is about to become a shill for Luebker. I could be really wrong but now any political messages I see from the site about TX-23 will have me suspicious.
Probably the most disturbing statement was that “the TX 23 will turn into the NY 23.” Really? I hope so because if it has the same results as NY-23 Rodriguez is a shoo in for the election. Once again the conservatives and Tea Baggers will have sabotaged their party on some misguided directions from BLAP (Beck, Limbaugh, Armey, and Palin – okay, I’m test driving that but it’s not looking good), of which only Armey really may have some connection with TX-23 voters. The rest are just trying to hawking sound bites to sell their TV, radio, and book interests. For all those Rs who claim Ds exalt Obama like he’s the messiah, try looking in the mirror. I’ve never seen a bunch of people who hang on every word of a second-rate former governor of a state with less population than Austin.
2010 is less than a year away. With health care dominating the debates and creating rallying cries for many sides the race will probably be interesting at best. How well the Rs will be able to hold together the health care arguments until next November is another question. That’s a long time to hold a grudge and a lot can happen in between. With stimulus dollars finally starting to kick in unemployment could take a turn for the better. Banks appear to be getting back on their feet so credit markets may start loosening up which would result in more economic activity. In other words, Obama’s actions may actually start correcting the mess the Bush administration left us in at the close of 2008.
If so, that’s not the message the conservatives really want to hear as more independents will opt for the Ds instead of the Rs, leaving them with pretty much a bunch of washed up TV, radio and book hawkers to follow. Then again, I’m no expert like the other political site.
Wouldn’t you expect to see more resonance for BLAP (like the acronym!) in TX than NY? I sure do.
You’re an idiot and you apparently don’t know what you are talking about because we are well aware of you being a Democrat. OH, that’s right Ciro is a Democrat.
Okay this will be a fun comment to respond to. First of all, duh, yes I’m a Democrat. If you just figured that out maybe we should all school you on politics. Secondly, only because you responded to me does it make sense to reply to this. Please review the guidelines for commenting because statements like that will get the comment deleted. I don’t tolerate comments like “idiot” against other in this blog. Either learn to comment reasonably or find another forum.
Now to the situation. This comment is interesting since it came shortly after I e-mailed a reponse to the Vic Luebker campaign about a response from them. It asked me to consider his message before I assumed his motives. I only assumed motives after an e-mail from another political site in the city stating that “the TX 23 will turn into the NY 23.” That led me to believe that Luebker is planning a takeover of the Republican nomination from Larson.
So, first of all, if the commenter really feels like putting a valid position forward I would assume something more tangible than “You’re an idiot” in the response. Apparently I do know a lot more about what I’m talking about since they provided no reasonable response to my position. If you really have a response put it forward. Most people in this blog do and it’s greatly appreciated. Secondly, it came shortly after the e-mail so it must be from the Luebker campaign. This blog entry’s a week old and has had one response until the e-mail to Luebker. Hmmm.
Regarding Rodriguez I really don’t have any stock in him winning or losing. He’s not my rep and I’m just watching the race from the sidelines. He’s not exhibited the greatest position on some issues so I’m kind of disappointed in him but he does hold some reasonable positions on other things. So, I could go either way on him.
Finally, using the moniker of G.Beck also seems to make a position on where this campaign is going. G.Beck = Tea Party = Hoffman (NY-23). Connect the dots, if you will. Actually the G.Beck moniker is pretty strange since I really don’t think Glenn Beck even cares about my blog. If he did, WOW! I made the big time. But I’m not banking on that. So either put your real self out there and quit hiding. It’s pretty lame if you hide on such monikers.
Is “stealth” an accurate description of Luebker activity? It seems like the novelty of social media has worn off and any “purity” that may have existed when the channel was inhabited by technically savvy political neophytes has worn off. Is social media simply a more cost effective way for politicians to get the message out than flyers and broadcast advertising? If there is something more, what are the feedback mechanisms – how does conversation on your site or comments on the SAEN message boards inform policy?
It would be interesting to play along with the Luebker site and see what is at stake for an influential blog to play a part in an astroturfing. Should the FAA require open books for political blogs like they do for product reviewers?
This raises the larger issue of how money plays such a large role in politics – it is neat to see such large “war chests” being raised by many small contributions, but I would rather see people engaged as volunteers, walking neighborhoods, etc. It would be better if people stopped substituting their money for their time and actually engaged.
Like the new CAPTCHA!
G. Beck’s comment is really weird “…because we are well aware of you being a Democrat.” Is this guy so deluded he believes his awareness of another’s party affiliation determines the other’s intelligence? Who is “we” – you and your fellow SMERSH operatives? This “awareness” sounds menacing – is a Democrat only smart until G. Beck notices? Sounds like a strange type of Midas touch – everything Midas touched turned to gold, everything G. Beck is aware of is idiocy. Nice incoherent pastiche of insults and menace. Glenn Beck wants his name back.
I agree with Davidson that Texas would be a cozier home to BLAP conservative candidates. Ciro is my rep and I will be surprised if there are no serious challengers from the Republican side. However, I think the Democrat Texas congressman most in danger of losing his seat would be Chet Edwards in the 17th district. This district include College Station and Waco, 2 of most conservative Texas towns right in the middle of the Texas Bible Belt. Maybe there will be a “Conservative Party” candidate who will play a big role in the district election in 2010.