The Iowa Caucus is not about picking a winner
Today’s the day many of us have been waiting for. Tonight about 100,000 Iowans will head to schools, churches, meeting halls, and living rooms to sit down and cast their choice for the Republican presidential nominee. Iowa is “first in the nation” and received prominent attention during the 70s when an obscure former GA governor and peanut farmer won the contest and went on to become president. Since then the nation focuses on this state’s primary process, mainly because of the attention Iowans give to selecting their candidates. But, with all this attention that Iowa gets during the winter prior to a presidential year, how influential is the state in the selection of a nominee and possible president?
First, if you look at Iowa’s demographic make-up you’ll find it is far from reflective of our country. According to recent US Census data, Iowa is 91.3% white, 2.9% black, and 5% Hispanic. It’s unemployment currently sits at 5.7% compared with the nation at 8.0%. Voter turnout is higher than most other states in the nation with almost 53% voting for statewide offices in 2010 compared with Texas at 38%. Over 60% of Iowa caucus goers in 2008 identified as evangelical Christians. Based on that information you can see that the issues important to Iowans can be much different than those of the rest of the nation.
So, with these differences with the rest of the nation, why is there so much attention placed on Iowa? As some have noted, Iowa has an average track record at picking a winner. In fact, Bill Clinton finished in fourth place with 3% in 1992. That year “Uncommitted” came in second with 12% of the vote. Former Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) won the caucus, which was to be expected. McCain came in fourth in 2008 with Mike Huckabee winning the caucus.
With those factors being considered, why is so much attention placed on this contest? To answer that, you need to consider it from a different perspective. Iowa serves more as a good vetting of the candidates rather than picking a winner. It’s a part of the winnowing of the field as the nation moves to Super Tuesday when most of the delegates are at stake in the nomination process. To really have a good nomination process, you really don’t want a large field fracturing the delegate counts. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina serve as good vetting states for that process.
Tonight, most likely we’ll see Michelle Bachmann come in last and start considering termination of her campaign. We’ll also see if Newt Gingrich has the staying power to last through South Carolina. If he finishes behind Gov. Rick Perry it’s a good chance he’ll also consider hanging it up, primarily because of a shortage of funds to fuel an all out fight in South Carolina. We’ve already seen Tim Pawlenty drop out after the Iowa Straw Poll and Herman Cain drop out after the sexual abuse allegations kept mounting. Pawlenty’s drop could be attributed to Iowa. Cain’s was going to happen regardless of what state was up next.
After tonight, the field will become a little more defined but it’s still a toss-up. The top three are so close it’s impossible to tell who’ll win tonight. It really depends on who shows up at 7 p.m. to sit and listen to speeches and cast a ballot. It takes a great commitment to engage in the Iowa Caucus and only 10% of the state really does take the time.
