Concerned Citizens

There’s been quite a bit of activity these past two weeks regarding the Republican presidential nominees. To start with, New Gingrich threw his hat in the ring for the first time in his and may have wished differently after his FAIL week as presidential nominee. Mike Huckabee declared it God’s will that he not seek the nomination. Donald Trump announced his decision to not seek the nomination during Upfront Week with the network, like the true showman he is. Tim Pawlenty is now scheduled to announce his candidacy for president next week. Which brings us to our own Gov. Rick Perry, who appears to be getting press as a potential nominee without even doing a single thing. So can we expect Gov. Perry to join the rank and file of nominees even though he said wouldn’t seek the nomination?

Let’s start with Gingrich. After announcing his candidacy for the presidency, some met the announcement with reserved judgment. After all, Gingrich has been out of politics on the sidelines for over a decade, spending most of his time as a beltway consultant and providing commentary on political matters. Gingrich would also be 68 years old if he won the nomination and presidency. That’s not a bad aspect but it is something to note. However, even before announcing his candidacy Gingrich wasn’t really a darling of the rising conservative movement in the Republican Party, dominated primarily by tea party activists.

Then came the week from hell for Gingrich. In a well documented piece in the Huffington Post, Jason Linkins outlines the various missteps by both Gingrich and his campaign staff that all started with a harmless interview by David Gregory on Meet the Press. As Linkins points out, the interview seemed reasonable and many in the studio felt it to be a true work of political art by the former Speaker of the House. Peggy Noonan, columnist for the Wall Street Journal, even said that Gingrich is “one of the best explainers of generally conservative views and philosophical starting points.” Linkins goes on to point out that after a week of stumbles, several co-chairs of a fundraiser for Gingrich had already pulled support for the candidate, leaving him questionable to even make it through the summer, much less the Iowa Straw Poll scheduled for August.

Looking at the three people speculated to be seeking the nomination, Mike Huckabee, Haley Barbour, and Donald Trump, after their pullout of the race it seemed to leave a void for moderate Republicans looking for an alternative to Obama. Granted, if you look at conservative Republicans you find they seem to be gravitating around the likes of Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, or Rick Santorum. Mitt Romney, once a possible frontrunner, is having challenges with questions about Massachusetts health care system enacted during his term as governor of the state.

Tim Pawlenty could provide a solid nominee for the Republicans but name recognition could be a challenge for him as he enters the race. Pawlenty hails from Minnesota, commonly known as a more moderate state which could cause problems for him on the right of the party. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) always proves to be a colorful nominee but some of his libertarian views can run afoul of those who hold a more conservative social viewpoint. Paul’s opposition to the drug war and other socially conservative positions definitely makes him a hard choice for those libertarians who want to have their cake and eat it too.

This brings us to that non-candidate, Rick Perry. Last year, right after the November elections, Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight, had Perry listed as one of the least likely candidates for the 2012 nomination. Others have been quietly speculating that while Perry may not be officially running, he is lining up the planets for a potential candidacy. Time magazine pointed out their reasons to believe he’s teeing up for the White House. “One thing both sides agree on is Rick Perry is running for President — no matter what he and those in his inner circle say,” said the article.

After the Huckabee pullout Erin McPike and Scott Conroy of Real Clear Politics started the Perry rumor mill once again with an article about possible rumblings within his inner circle of revving up a run for the nomination. “A Texas pol who is close to Perry has been telling a few key strategists that the nation’s longest-serving governor sees a vacuum and is waiting to be summoned into the race. This source believes that could happen by late summer,” said the article. From there the cavalcade of speculation about his run started hitting the wires, summed up by a good follow-up article by McPike in RCP.

Not to be outdone, Silver of FiveThirtyEight provided one of the more wonky looks at a Perry nomination, pointing out the void of a Southern Republican candidate and the likelihood of victory should a Southern candidate emerge. Ross Ramsey of the Texas Tribune adds to the speculation with a list of why Perry would make a good nominee for the party.

“The governor is in a great position. His name is in the conversation, but he doesn’t have to trek to Iowa and New Hampshire and he doesn’t have to open a federal campaign account and he doesn’t have to fend off attacks from declared candidates. He’s in place if there’s a draft, but not at risk of an embarrassing loss. How can you lose a race you’re not running?” said Ramsey in the article.

So, with a lackluster slate of remaining candidates, no real Southern contender in the race, the planets seem to be lining up for Perry, who many had discounted earlier, to be standing at the ready to suit up as that 12th Man for the Republican Party.