Concerned Citizens

According to Paul Burka of Texas Monthly Gov. Rick Perry leads Kay Bailey Hutchison 42% to 38% with 7% saying they would likely vote for someone else and 13% being undecided (Source: Rasmussen Reports). According to Rasmussen Reports “Perry leads by 15 percentage points among conservative voters but Hutchison leads by 35 points among the moderates.” This shows the race is really a dead heat at this point. Earlier in the year Hutchison seemed to have had an edge on Perry and lead him during the first part of the year while in her exploratory period. Apparently Perry’s recent public appearances including his infamous Tea Party “secession speech” has helped raise his ratings.

While the primary is still over a year away this race is starting to take shape as a battle of the Republicans and could create quite a stir nationally. Part of the controversy on Hutchison’s run for the governor’s office is that it could present a problem in Washington in the Senate where the margin for a filibuster proof majority is right on the balance. Hutchison has stated that regardless of the situation in the Senate she is determined to seek the governor’s office. With Al Franken inching closer and closer to securing the Minnesota Senate seat held by Norm Coleman the pressure will likely rise to avoid the vacating of Hutchison’s seat.

When looking at the Senate seat should Hutchison vacate it Todd Hill reports in the Burnt Orange Report that Sen. John Cornyn, the other Senator from Texas, concedes that Hutchison’s seat is winnable by the Democrats. Quoting from an article with The Hill “What I am concerned about is that it will be a special election that will be held perhaps as early as May 2010,” Cornyn said. “I don’t want this to turn into a situation where we elect a Democrat in Texas and further erode our possibilities.” This has to weigh heavily on Republicans across the nation as they continue to try to hold together some sort of coherent defense against Obama and the Democrats in Congress.

On the Democratic side Houston Mayor Bill White and former Comptroller John Sharp are campaigning strongly for the Democratic primary for the Senate. Both have strong support in the state with each having an equitable war chest heading into this battle as reported by the Burnt Orange Report. The Daily Kos/Research 2000 reports that in a poll against likely Republican challengers both Sharp and White poll at around 37-38%. Based on these numbers Cornyn has every right to be worried in a strong race for the U.S. Senate with a rising Democratic tide both statewide and nationwide.

On the Democratic side for the gubernatorial race the only known contender for the office is former Amb. Tom Schieffer, brother to CBS analyst Bob Schieffer. Recently the ambassador spoke in San Antonio to county Democrats during their monthly meeting. According to reports from friends the ambassador was pretty lackluster and didn’t present well as a challenger to someone like Perry or Hutchison. Another possible candidate for the Democratic nomination has been Sen. Leticia Van De Putte (D-San Antonio) who has been mentioned earlier this year. Van De Putte has stated she will not make a decision regarding this until after the legislature adjourns. Barring a special session by the governor that decision will be coming in several weeks.

So, as you can see, the governor’s race in Texas will prove to be our next exciting contest and with these type of polling numbers and dynamics should prove to be one heck of a race.